How Thunderstorms Are Changing in Mexico: Trends and Characteristics

ABSTRACT

Thunderstorms are among the most hazardous and common meteorological phenomena in Mexico, yet comprehensive assessments of their long‐term trends and associated characteristics remain absent. This study investigates changes in thunderstorm days and their environments in Mexico during 1992–2024 using a multisource approach that integrates surface weather station records, proximity soundings based on reanalysis data, and gridded lightning observations. Trend analysis was performed using the Mann‐Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator at both local and regional scales. Results reveal a statistically significant positive trend in annual thunderstorm days at the national scale (9.26 days year ⁻¹ ), with highly variable spatial and seasonal patterns. The most consistent increases occur during the warm season in central, western, and southeastern Mexico, while negative trends are identified in southern Mexico and along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Environmental analysis indicates that moisture‐related parameters exhibit the most spatially coherent positive trends, suggesting increasingly favourable thermodynamic conditions for convective development. Instability and composite parameters show stronger signals in northeastern and central Mexico, particularly during spring. Lightning‐based trends partially corroborate station observations, with a strong interannual correlation between both datasets ( r  = 0.84). Regional contrasts highlight distinct controlling mechanisms: moisture dominates in the coasts, while enhanced instability characterizes the northeastern and central regions of Mexico. These findings represent the first systematic documentation of thunderstorm trends in Mexico and provide a basis for climate change impact assessments of severe weather.