How Rural Labor Aging Affects Agricultural Productive Service Development: Threshold Effects and the Transmission Mechanism of Inefficient Cultivated Land Scale Management

The accelerating aging of China’s rural labor force—characterized by an ‘earlier and more severe’ trajectory in rural areas compared to urban ones—poses a fundamental challenge to agricultural modernization, yet its implications for the development of agricultural productive services remain poorly understood. This study addresses a central question for agricultural sustainability: does rural labor aging act as a ‘catalyst’ or a ‘stumbling block’ for the development of agricultural productive services? To address this question, we employ fixed-effects, panel threshold regression, and mediation models using provincial panel data from 2011 to 2022, systematically investigating the nonlinear effects and transmission mechanisms. A significant single threshold is identified at an aging rate of 8.17%. Below this threshold, labor aging promotes productive service development via a demand-pull effect; above it, the promoting effect weakens substantially due to an adoption-inhibition effect driven by human capital decline. Mechanism analysis reveals a negative mediating role of cultivated land scale management: land concentration induced by labor aging, without corresponding human capital upgrades, is associated with “inefficient scale management” as reflected in the suppression of service development. While our empirical measure captures operational scale rather than efficiency per se, this negative mediation pattern is consistent with the presence of an inefficiency trap. Heterogeneity analysis shows the strongest inhibitory effect in northeast China, while eastern regions with strong factor substitution capacity are less affected. As most provinces had crossed the threshold by 2022, policies should shift from leveraging the dividend period to addressing deep-aging challenges, including breaking the trap of inefficient scale management and adopting region-specific strategies. These findings highlight that achieving agricultural sustainability in an aging society requires shifting from relying on the demographic dividend to proactively overcoming the structural lock-in of deep aging. Our proposed policies could contribute to fostering a more resilient and sustainable agricultural system in China, and may also offer valuable references for other rapidly aging economies with appropriate contextual adaptation.