How has mental health impacted the HIV epidemic and how has the HIV epidemic impacted mental health in Western Kenya? A mathematical modelling study
Daniel Citron, Hae-Young Kim, Roscoe Kasujja, Samuel Mwalili, Duncan Gathungu, Chikumbi Chambwe, Ingrida Platais, Frey B Assefa, R Scott Braithwaite, Anna BershteynBackground
In eastern and southern Africa, HIV and depression lead to substantial morbidity and mortality. Each condition affects the other: people living with HIV (PLHIV) have higher depression rates, while depression increases HIV acquisition and hinders treatment. The combined impact of HIV-depression interactions on HIV and mental health remains poorly understood.
Methods
We adapted the EMOD-HIV simulation model to incorporate depression incidence, recovery and relapse. We modelled a bidirectional scenario between HIV and depression: HIV increased depression incidence; depression increased HIV incidence and reduced HIV care outcomes. In a counterfactual scenario, all HIV-depression interactions were removed. We estimated how interactions impacted depression episodes, HIV acquisitions, HIV-related deaths and HIV treatment benefits in a high-prevalence region of Western Kenya, 1985–2035.
Results
Without interactions, the model projected 1.23 million (95% CI 1.21M to 1.24M) HIV acquisitions, 658 000 (95% CI 650 000 to 666 000) HIV deaths and 12.88 million (95% CI 12.87M to 12.89M) depression episodes. HIV-depression interactions increased depression episodes by 9.76% (95% CI 9.67% to 9.87%), HIV acquisitions by 12.3% (95% CI 12.0% to 12.6%) and HIV deaths by 12.5% (95% CI 12.2% to 12.9%). These interactions also diminished HIV treatment benefits, with 7.72% (95% CI 7.39% to 8.07%) fewer HIV acquisitions and 3.88% (95% CI 3.71% to 4.05%) fewer deaths averted per person-year on treatment. In secondary analyses, increased depression incidence among PLHIV had the greatest effect on HIV outcomes, contributing 7.26% of acquisitions and 7.55% of deaths.
Conclusion
HIV-depression interactions have worsened both epidemics. Depression’s effects on HIV incidence have been especially deleterious, while its effect on HIV care engagement is increasingly important.