How Does the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme Reshape Corporate Green Innovation? Evidence from China’s Pilot Policy

Market-based instruments for environmental governance have emerged as a central pillar of China’s climate policy architecture, though their capacity to drive corporate green innovation continues to be the subject of active scholarly debate. Drawing on a staggered difference-in-differences identification strategy and a panel of Chinese A-share listed firms covering 2008 to 2023, this study evaluates the impact of China’s carbon emission trading scheme (CETS) pilot policy on firm-level green innovation. Our estimates indicate that the CETS pilot policy significantly increases green patent applications, a finding that proves robust for an extensive set of checks: parallel trends assessment, placebo exercises, PSM-DID estimation, alternative estimation strategies, and varied sample constructions. Heterogeneity analyses show that the innovation-enhancing effect is concentrated among firms operating in non-regulated industries and located in the western region, and that enterprises and regions endowed with stronger baseline carbon performance and higher pollution control investment display amplified responses. Mechanism analysis shows that the CETS pilot policy increases both operating costs and debt financing costs, yet these two cost channels exert opposite effects on green innovation. Operating costs drive innovation through cost-induced pressure, while financing costs inhibit innovation through a crowding-out effect. The net-positive effect suggests that the innovation-inducing effect of operating costs outweighs the innovation-inhibiting effect of financing costs. This study recommends maintaining stable carbon price signals, implementing complementary green finance policies, providing differentiated support for low-capability firms and regions, and accounting for spillover effects in policy evaluation.