How Does Incentive-Based Environmental Regulation Promote Employment? A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Carbon Trading Rights Pilot

Treating the pilot carbon emissions trading policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to assess its employment effects using panel data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies between 2007 and 2022. Results indicate that the pilot policy effectively promotes corporate employment, with the most significant positive impacts observed in private enterprises, secondary industry firms, and technology-intensive companies. The pilot policy promotes corporate employment through three intermediary pathways: “scale–output,” “factor substitution and complementarity,” and “innovation compensation.” “Financing constraints” exert a moderating effect on these pathways, weakening the promotional impact. The pilot policy increases corporate demand for highly educated and technical talent, generating labor mobility effects across regions and industries. The study provides actionable insights for employment effects arising from carbon emissions trading market development.