How Do Pilot Policies for Climate—Adaptive City Development Enhance Urban Green Energy Efficiency?

Against the backdrop of deepening global climate governance and the ongoing advancement of the dual carbon goals, clarifying whether climate risk management can effectively drive improvements in urban green energy efficiency holds significant importance for synergistically advancing climate adaptation and green transition. This study employs data from 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China spanning 2012–2023, utilising the climate-resilient city pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment. By integrating dual machine learning models with spatial lag models, it systematically examines the causal effects, transmission mechanisms, and spatial spillover characteristics of climate risk governance on urban green energy efficiency. Findings reveal: ① Climate-resilient city development significantly enhances local green energy efficiency through three pathways: green finance development, green technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading; ② The impact exhibits pronounced spatio-temporal heterogeneity, characterised by delayed and amplified effects, particularly pronounced in inland, central cities, and non-resource-based cities; ③ The impact exhibits a pronounced positive spatial correlation, not only catalysing local green transitions but also generating positive spatial spillovers to neighbouring regions, indicating potential for regional collaborative development. Additionally, green finance itself possesses positive cross-regional spillover effects. This study provides empirical evidence and policy recommendations for optimising climate adaptation policy design, strengthening green finance coordination, and advancing regionally linked green transitions.