How Can an Industry-Dominated County in China Achieve Peak Industrial Carbon Emissions? A Scenario Analysis Based on the STIRPAT Model

Industrial carbon emissions are central to China’s carbon-peaking agenda, yet county-level industrial pathways remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, an industry-dominated county, to identify the drivers of industrial CO2 emissions and assess potential peaking pathways. Industrial emissions from 2010 to 2019 were estimated from fossil-fuel consumption and cement-clinker production. An extended STIRPAT model incorporating industrial labor force, industrial GDP, coal consumption, cement production, heavy-industry share, and thermal-power share was estimated using ridge regression to address multicollinearity. Six scenarios combining alternative economic-development and low-carbon-regulation intensities were used to forecast emissions from 2020 to 2035. Cement production and coal consumption were the strongest positive correlates of industrial CO2 emissions, followed by heavy-industry share and thermal-power share. The model showed good fit, with a mean relative prediction error of 0.66%. Under BAU and S3, emissions did not peak by 2035. S1, S2 and S5 reached a peak in 2030, whereas S4 reached a peak in 2025. The S1 was identified as the most suitable pathway because it balances industrial growth with a 2030 emissions peak. Policies should prioritize coal reduction, clean-energy development, industrial upgrading, and lower-carbon cement production.