Housing-Market Reconfiguration in a Redevelopment Precinct: A Synthetic Control Assessment of Turnover–Valuation Divergence

Redevelopment precincts are often assessed through price uplift, although price appreciation alone does not show whether a local housing market becomes more active or liquid. This study examines whether residential turnover and property valuation diverged around the Etihad Campus redevelopment precinct in East Manchester after the 2014Q4 consolidation of the wider campus setting. Using Office for National Statistics House Price Statistics for Small Areas, the analysis applies a neighborhood-scale synthetic control design to a compact Core-4 treatment precinct, using a filtered within-Manchester donor pool to construct the synthetic benchmark. Residential turnover is measured as the mean residential sales count per Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA), and valuation is measured as the average of LSOA-level median house-price trajectories. Robustness is assessed using alternative treatment definitions and pre-intervention calibration windows. The results show a persistent post-2014 turnover shortfall relative to the synthetic benchmark, supported by rank-based placebo diagnostics and retained across all valid turnover specifications. By contrast, valuation evidence is weaker, mixed, and more sensitive to design choice. These findings indicate selective housing-market reconfiguration rather than generalized uplift. Redevelopment evaluation should therefore distinguish transaction circulation from price-based valuation, particularly in cumulative precinct-scale redevelopment settings.