High‐Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region Using the Pseudo‐Global Warming Method With a CMIP6 Ensemble: Wind Energy Resource Availability

Abstract

Weather‐dependent renewable energy resources are already vulnerable to climate change. High‐resolution regional climate simulations are essential for accurately assessing how climate change may impact wind energy resources, particularly in regions with complex topography. In this study, we dynamically downscaled ERA5 data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, both in its original form and its perturbed version within the framework of the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method. The perturbation was performed using deltas from the 13‐member CMIP6 ensemble, derived from the far future under the Shared Socio‐economic Pathway (SSP)5–8.5 scenario and historical periods. This approach was adopted to achieve a 4 km resolution over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea (EMBS) region to analyze the projected changes in wind resources. High inter‐annual and seasonal variability in wind speed across the region resulted in important spatio‐temporal changes in wind power density (WPD) in high‐resolution regional climate simulations. The annual, summer and autumn averages of the WPD of the Aegean Sea (especially in the southern parts) are projected to increase by up to 50 Wm ⁻² . Winter WPD changes are projected to be negative for the mountainous regions of the inner Mediterranean coasts and the eastern part of the Black Sea. However, the relatively non‐complex regions of western Türkiye may experience positive changes in WPD (up to 50% in summer, 30% annually). Overall, our study constitutes the inaugural implementation of PGW with a CMIP6 ensemble for wind resource indicators in the EMBS region, which is known as a climate change hotspot.