High temperature cardiovascular disease deaths and disability due to high temperatures,1990-2021:findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
X Rao, M WangAbstract
Backgroung
Cardiovascular disease(CVD) remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide, and high temperatures are an important but under-recognised risk factor for cardiovascular disease.However, few studies have comprehensively analysed the relationship between high temperature risk factors and the burden of CVD on a global scale.The aim of this study was to compare long-term trends in global CVD deaths and disability due to high temperatures from 1990 to 2021.
Methods
We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate global mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with their corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), for CVD due to high temperatures from 1990 to 2021.Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), adjusted for age, sex, time period, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles.
Results
From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardised disability rate (ASDR) for CVD due to high temperatures globally increased from 43.27 (95% UI: 13.96-82.11 ) to 55.79 (95% UI: 26.25-99.59 ), with an estimated average annual rate of change (EAPC) of 1.121 % (0.783%-1.459%), and the ASDR for all SDI groups had an increase.The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) increased from 1.89 (95% UI: 0.53-3.78 ) to 2.45 (95% UI: 1.09-4.54 ), with an EAPC of 1.18 % (0.845%-1.514% ), and all SDI quintiles except the high SDI group saw an increase in the burden, with this burden being more pronounced in the Low-middle SDI regions. Among the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions, Central Asia recorded the highest increases in ASDR and ASMR, whereas Central Sub-Saharan Africa saw the most significant declines. Males over 20 years old were more susceptible to high temperature-related mortality and DALYs compared to females.
Conclusion
This study underscores the significant impact of high temperatures on the standard ASMR and ASDR for CVD. The overall CVD burden varies by age, sex, SDI, region and country,highlighting the need for targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the effects of climate change on cardiovascular health.ASR and number of DALYsDALYs and ASR of all ages