High-Resolution Soil Organic Carbon Content Mapping in Typical Lakeside Oases Using Sentinel-2 Images and Machine Learning Models

Accurate high-resolution mapping of soil organic carbon (SOC) is essential for agricultural management and carbon pool assessment in arid lakeside oases, a fragile aquatic-terrestrial transition ecosystem. However, targeted high-precision SOC mapping for typical lakeside oases remains insufficient: existing models have poor adaptability to the highly fragmented oasis landscapes, and fine-resolution SOC spatial products for the representative Bosten Lake oasis are lacking. To address this inadequacy, we integrated Sentinel-2 imagery with topographic, bioclimatic, and spectral environmental covariates and developed four machine learning models (Random Forest, XGBoost, SVR with RBF kernel, Cubist) for SOC prediction, based on 153 topsoil samples (0–20 cm) collected via stratified random sampling in the study area. Model performance was validated through 5-fold cross-validation, the optimal model was selected for 10 m resolution SOC mapping, and dominant driving factors were identified via SHAP analysis. The results showed that SOC content in the study area ranged from 2.37 to 20.63 g·kg−1 (mean = 10.59 g·kg−1), with moderate spatial variability (CV = 34.86%). The Cubist model achieved the highest mapping accuracy (R2 = 0.8166, RMSE = 1.5812 g·kg−1, MAE = 0.9247 g·kg−1). The generated high-resolution SOC map clearly revealed a spatial pattern of high values in the eastern well-irrigated cropland and low values in bare and salinized areas at the oasis edge. The Bare Soil Index (BSI), surface roughness, and Normalized Difference Red Edge Index 1 (NDRE1) were the dominant factors controlling SOC spatial distribution. This study mitigates the inadequacy of high-precision SOC mapping in typical arid lakeside oases, and the proposed framework is readily applicable to other fragmented arid landscapes worldwide and provides reliable spatial data and a scalable technical framework for precision agriculture and sustainable land management in similar fragile ecosystems.