High-Quality Development in the “Four Provinces of Mountains and Rivers”, China: Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Obstacle Factor Diagnosis, and Future Prediction

High-quality development is China’s response to the global agenda of sustainable and low-carbon growth. The “Four Provinces of Mountains and Rivers” (Shandong, Shanxi, Henan and Hebei provinces, abbreviated as SSHH region), a strategic northern China block, is central to ecological protection of the Yellow River Basin and revitalization of northern China. This study constructs an evaluation framework with six dimensions—economic growth, innovation incentives, coordination and balance, green ecology, openness and connectivity, and shared prosperity to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution, obstacle factors, and future trends of high-quality development across 55 prefecture-level cities in the SSHH region from 2008 to 2022. Results show: (1) overall development markedly improved with narrowing inter-city disparities; (2) an east-high, west-low pattern persisted but gaps converged, led by the coastal Shandong; (3) moderate positive spatial autocorrelation existed, with hot spots expanding and cold spots shrinking; (4) all six sub-dimensions improved but remained spatially uneven; openness and connectivity and innovation incentives remain the persistent relative obstacles, while the relative constraints of the other dimensions on high-quality development have somewhat eased; (5) future high-quality development will continue to improve in the whole region, with the cities in Henan commonly having the fastest growth rate. Zhengzhou and Qingdao will lead more strongly, but intra-provincial gaps will tend to widen, and southern Henan, western Shanxi, and southern Hebei will become the new relative lag area; (6) measures such as optimizing the spatial layout, addressing key obstacle factors, and enhancing regional coordination are proposed. This study provides a scientific basis for coordinated development in the SSHH region and China’s high-quality development agenda.