High-Precision UT1 Prediction with Different Angular Momentum Combination Schemes

Universal Time (UT1) is a core component of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP). High-precision UT1 predictions are essential for satellite navigation, deep-space exploration, and the maintenance of national standard time. Although effective angular momentum (EAM) information can improve UT1 predictions, the impacts of different angular momentum combinations on prediction performance have not yet been systematically investigated. To improve the prediction accuracy of the National Time Service Center (NTSC) UT1 products, we constructed four prediction schemes: Case 1 uses only atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) data; Case 2 uses AAM + oceanic angular momentum (OAM) data; Case 3 uses AAM + OAM + hydrological angular momentum (HAM) data; and Case 4 uses the full EAM datasets combining AAM, OAM, HAM, and sea-level angular momentum (SLAM) data. The input UT1 series is from the NTSC EOP products, and the 10-day angular momentum forecasts are provided by the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ). The rolling forecast evaluation was conducted from June 2024 to September 2025. The results show that Case 2 performs best for short-term UT1 predictions over 1–12 days, improving the mean prediction accuracy by 10.7%, 10.0%, and 52.0% relative to the predictions using Case 4, IERS finals.daily, and the original NTSC predictions, respectively. For medium- and long-term UT1 predictions over 13–90 days, Case 1 performs best, with corresponding mean improvements of 9.8%, 50.7%, and 61.3%, respectively. These results indicate that incorporating more angular momentum components does not necessarily lead to better UT1 predictions, i.e., Case 2 is preferable for short-term UT1 predictions, whereas Case 1 is more suitable for medium- and long-term UT1 predictions. These findings provide empirical evidence and practical guidance for optimizing UT1 prediction models.