Heterogeneous spatio‐temporal effects of the Screwworm‐induced border closure on US cattle basis

Abstract

The U.S. suspended imports of live cattle from Mexico beginning in 2024 after New World Screwworm (NWS) was detected in Mexico. This measure sought to prevent an outbreak of NWS into the U.S., which could cause significant economic losses. Mexican cattle are an important source of the U.S. feeder cattle supply, and closing the border represents a major supply shock. We quantify the impacts of border closure on domestic cattle markets. We find that the feeder cattle basis strengthened following the closure. The magnitude of this effect depends on a market's proximity to the border and the duration of the closure.