Heat Stress and Elite Tennis Performance: A 26-Year Analysis of Grand Slam Match Dynamics in a Warming Climate
Liam Simani, Yoram Epstein, Itay KetkoPurpose:
To evaluate the association of elevated ambient heat stress with elite men's tennis performance, match dynamics and competitive outcomes.
Methods:
This retrospective cohort study analyzed 13,081 men’s matches in all four Grand Slam tournaments from 2000-2025, linked with localized meteorological data. Tournaments were classified as "Hot" if the mean Heat Index exceeded the local 26-year average by ≥1.0 standard deviation; remaining tournaments were classified as "Control". Categorical and continuous outcomes included measures of match completion, technical performance, competitive outcomes, and temporal match characteristics.
Results:
“Hot” tournaments clustered heavily in the last decade. Elevated thermal stress inverted the winner-minus-loser age gap from -0.21 to +0.16 years (p<0.01), indicating a relative advantage for older athletes. Match pace differed between environmental conditions: median match pace was 1.47 points per minute during Hot tournaments vs. 1.53 points per minute during Control tournaments (p<0.001), and median match duration was 149 min. vs. 141 min. (p<0.001). Technical metrics showed subtle alterations, including higher double-fault rates (3.71% vs. 3.50%, p<0.001). While overall match non-completion rates and ranking upsets remained stable globally, the non-completion rate nearly doubled at the US Open (8.35% vs. 4.65%, p<0.001).
Conclusions:
Elevated Heat Index was associated with small but consistent changes in elite men’s tennis match dynamics. The observed reduction in match pace is consistent with self-pacing under elevated thermal stress. These findings carry vital implications for sports sectors where the capacity to regulate effort intensity is constrained. Sporting organizations should consider proactive heat-management frameworks, including environmental monitoring, scheduling, acclimatization, and cooling interventions, to safeguard athletes' health and preserve performance.