Health‐Related Performance Decrements Resulted in Substantial Financial Loss for Team USA Athletes at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games
Jacob F. Oeding, Travis Anderson, Ashley N. Triplett, Amber Donaldson, Jonathan T. Finnoff, Heather K. Vincent, Eric G. PostPurpose
To estimate the financial impact of injury and illness among Team USA athletes who participated in the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and evaluate the cost‐effectiveness of a feasible illness prevention program.
Methods
All Team USA athlete‐events at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games were analyzed. Precompetition betting markets were used to derive the expected performance. Counterfactual finish distributions were generated using a Markov ranking model. Injury‐ and illness‐associated performance decrements were estimated relative to expected medal placement outcomes and translated into expected financial losses across 3 domains: Operation Gold performance incentives, athlete stipends, and estimated commercial value. Losses were summarized at the athlete‐event, athlete, and Team USA levels. A cohort Markov cost‐effectiveness model evaluated a potential illness prevention program using probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
Results
Across 808 Team USA athlete‐events, 186 injuries and 108 illnesses were recorded. Total injury‐ and illness‐attributable financial losses were estimated at $1,014,210 under conservative commercial value assumptions ( B = $10,000), including $462,409 attributable to injuries and $551,802 attributable to illnesses. Median athlete‐event‐level financial loss was $3000 (75th percentile: $5094; 90th percentile: $7758), whereas median athlete‐level loss was $4710 (90th percentile: $15,617; maximum: $62,915), indicating substantial right skewness and concentration of losses. Illness events were associated with higher mean financial losses per event than injuries ($5109 vs $2486). An illness prevention program costing $200 per athlete and reducing illness risk by 40% was cost‐saving, averting $220,721 in expected losses at a total cost of $117,000, yielding net savings of $103,721, and remaining cost‐saving in 95.2% of probabilistic simulations.
Conclusions
Injury and illness at the Olympic Games are associated with substantial and highly concentrated financial losses, with illnesses accounting for a disproportionate share of the total impact on Team USA athletes.
Level of Evidence
Level IV, retrospective cohort study with counterfactual performance modeling.