Habitat Suitability of Mango Bacterial Black Spot Disease Under Different Climate Scenarios Using MaxEnt

ABSTRACT

Intensified globalisation and the movement of plant materials have increased pathways for plant invasions and the risk of plant disease establishment globally. Mango bacterial black spot (MBBS) is an invasive disease native to Africa. The disease poses a serious threat to global mango production and trade. Yet MBBS habitat‐suitability models that can guide surveillance and monitoring programmes remain poorly documented. This study predicts global climate‐suitable areas for MBBS using the Maximum Entropy model. Future projections were conducted under two socioeconomic pathways (SSPs245 and 585) and two time periods (2050s: 2041–2060 and 2070s: 2061–2080). The models showed strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.890, TSS = 0.686, and CBI = 0.705). Among the bioclimatic variables, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the wettest month and the precipitation seasonality contributed the most to the model. Under current conditions, parts of South America, Africa, Asia and Australia were found to be suitable. These areas will become more suitable for disease establishment in the future. Areas suitable for MBBS establishment are projected to increase by 1.60% and 2.01% under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively, in the 2050s. Similarly, in the 2070s, suitability gains are projected at 1.91% and 2.78% under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. These findings provide insight into the habitat suitability of the MBBS disease and are useful for surveillance and monitoring programs.