Habitat and Thermal Breadth Shape Climate‐Driven Range Shifts in Arctic Birds
Zhichang Cheng, Jente Ottenburghs, Willem F. de BoerABSTRACT
Aim
Rapid climate change is reshaping Arctic ecosystems and altering species' breeding distributions. We assessed climate‐driven breeding range shifts of Arctic birds and examined how functional traits, including morphology, habitat breadth, and thermal niche breadth, influence these shifts.
Location
European and North American Arctic.
Taxon
Arctic‐breeding bird species in the orders Anseriformes, Charadriiformes and Passeriformes.
Method
We quantified range shift metrics (i.e., record‐frequency‐weighted centroid latitude change and moving distance) between past (1960–1999) and current (2000–2024) periods using species occurrence data. Changes in suitable breeding distributions were estimated with species distribution models. The effects of functional traits on range shifts were evaluated using generalized linear models for each of the focal taxonomic groups, with continent‐level PGLS models across all species.
Results
Climatic trends differed markedly between the European and North American Arctic, resulting in region‐specific range shift responses. A significant interaction between habitat breadth and thermal niche emerged, as habitat breadth was positively associated with range shifts in species with narrow thermal breadth and lower critical minimum temperature, but negatively associated with shifts in species with broad thermal breadth and higher critical minimum temperature. Morphological traits linked to dispersal ability showed generally weak effects, and migratory strategy and trophic guild exhibited no consistent influence across taxa or regions. Although sensitivity analyses supported the main patterns, uneven sampling coverage, local record clustering, and unequal sample sizes limited our ability to fully disentangle biological range shifts from changes in sampling effort.
Main Conclusions
Trait interactions were more influential than single traits, indicating that species' responses to climate change depend on multidimensional trait combinations. Single functional traits provided limited explanatory power for Arctic bird range shifts and were strongly region and taxon‐dependent. Incorporating regional context and trait interactions is therefore essential for improving predictions of biodiversity responses to ongoing climate change.