Growth, Redistribution and Political Support Growth Incidence Curve Approach in Türkiye

Abstract

Numerous empirical studies have demonstrated the importance of economic growth in explaining political behaviour in Türkiye. However, while researchers have examined the level of growth, they have not addressed whether its ’inclusiveness’ matters for securing broad public support. This study examines the relationship between public support for a long-standing political party in power and the inclusiveness of economic growth. In this study, growth inclusiveness refers to income growth across different income groups. By calculating the growth incidence Curve (GIC) for periods spanning 2003–2024, the study heuristically examines the relationship between the distributional nature of growth during these periods and the public support the government enjoys. The findings are as follows: first, as the growth rate declines, inclusiveness declines. This decline coincides with a fall in political support for the government. Second, an increase in the inclusiveness of growth, rather than the level of growth itself, improves income distribution. Third, inclusive growth – often seen as a cause of political polarisation – also generates public support for the government.