Groundwater Resource Carrying Status and Influencing Factors in Key Areas of the Hexi Corridor

This study investigates changes in local groundwater carrying status and regional differences under the background of reductions in total groundwater abstraction, using Jiuquan, Jiayuguan, Zhangye, Jinchang, and Wuwei in the Hexi Corridor as study areas. The analysis was conducted from three dimensions: resource base, development pressure, and groundwater-level–storage change. The groundwater abstraction pressure index and net abstraction excess were jointly used to distinguish relative development intensity from the absolute volume exceeding allowable abstraction. Regional differences were further identified using groundwater-depth changes at 515 monitoring stations and shallow groundwater-storage changes. Residual correlations after controlling for month effects and linear trends, together with robustness tests, were used to examine the associations of precipitation, river runoff, and groundwater abstraction with groundwater depth. Results showed that total groundwater abstraction in the five cities decreased by 23.8% from 2018 to 2025, whereas the abstraction pressure index in key overexploitation areas remained between 1.12 and 2.08 in 2024, indicating that regional abstraction reduction and local overexploitation coexisted. Jinchang had the highest relative abstraction pressure, whereas Wuwei had the largest net abstraction excess, demonstrating that relative development intensity and excess abstraction volume correspond to different management priorities. During the study period, groundwater levels declined at 404 monitoring stations, and the cumulative shallow groundwater-storage change was −69.14 × 108 m3. Storage losses were concentrated mainly in Zhangye and Jiuquan and did not correspond to the regional ranking of development pressure, highlighting differences between current development intensity and cumulative storage change. After month effects and linear trends were controlled, the absolute values of 14 of the 15 correlations decreased, and 11 correlations changed from positive to negative, indicating that common seasonal cycles and long-term trends substantially affected the raw contemporaneous associations. By combining diagnosis of relative intensity and water-volume excess, comparison of groundwater-level and storage changes, and temporal-structure adjustment, this study refines regional identification of groundwater carrying status and provides a basis for spatially differentiated abstraction reduction and coordinated surface-water–groundwater management.