Grid-Aware Industrial Decarbonization: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Electrification, Hydrogen, and Carbon Capture Pathways for Energy-Intensive Industries

The decarbonization of energy-intensive continuous process industries remains a major challenge due to the simultaneous dependence on high-temperature thermal energy, continuous operation requirements, and increasing pressure to meet net-zero emission targets. While electrification, hydrogen utilization, renewable energy integration, and carbon capture technologies have been extensively investigated, most existing studies evaluate these solutions under static electricity-grid assumptions. However, the carbon intensity of electricity systems is changing rapidly, fundamentally altering the long-term effectiveness of industrial electrification pathways. This approach may lead to suboptimal investment decisions as the carbon intensity of electricity systems is rapidly decreasing in many countries. This study proposes an integrated techno-economic framework for evaluating industrial decarbonization pathways under a transitioning power grid. An anonymized industrial case representing a large-scale energy-intensive continuous manufacturing facility was analyzed using real operational data, energy performance indicators, and technology deployment scenarios. The assessment includes operational optimization measures, process electrification, photovoltaic-supported electricity supply, hydrogen fuel substitution, oxy-fuel combustion, and carbon capture technologies. For each scenario, carbon emission reduction potential, capital expenditure (CAPEX), operational expenditure (OPEX), and marginal carbon abatement cost were evaluated and compared. The results indicate that electrification-based solutions provide one of the most cost-effective early-stage decarbonization pathways, achieving greenhouse-gas emission reductions ranging from 51.2% under current grid conditions to 58.8% under the 2035 grid decarbonization scenario. Hydrogen scenarios demonstrate substantial technical potential but exhibit considerably higher carbon avoidance costs. Carbon capture technologies become increasingly important in deep-decarbonization stages where residual process emissions cannot be eliminated through fuel switching or electrification alone. Furthermore, the study shows that the effectiveness of electrification increases as the electricity grid becomes progressively decarbonized, highlighting the critical interaction between industrial transition strategies and national energy-system evolution. The findings demonstrate that cost-optimal industrial decarbonization cannot be achieved through a single technology pathway. Instead, a phased strategy combining operational excellence, electrification, renewable energy integration, alternative fuels, and carbon capture provides the most practical route toward net-zero emissions. The proposed framework offers a replicable decision-support methodology for energy-intensive continuous process industries seeking economically viable decarbonization roadmaps. A key finding is that industrial electrification should be assessed under future electricity-grid conditions rather than current grid-carbon-intensity assumptions. Consequently, decarbonization decisions become increasingly dependent on the evolution of the power system supplying industrial electricity.