Green Hydrogen Competitiveness in Morocco: A Factory‐Gate LCOH Analysis Based on the Green Ammonia Production Target of OCP’s Jorf Hydrogen Project in Jorf Lasfar

This study assesses the levelized cost of green hydrogen at the electrolyzer outlet using a factory‐gate approach for Jorf Lasfar, Morocco. Unlike studies based on generic plant sizes or broader value‐chain boundaries, the analysis is anchored in the publicly announced production target of OCP Morocco’s Jorf Hydrogen Project (JH2P), namely 100,000 tonnes of green ammonia per year. The corresponding hydrogen demand is derived from ammonia stoichiometry and used to size the electrolyzer. A technoeconomic model is then developed under optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic scenarios using assumptions calibrated from public data provided by the IEA, the World Bank, and IRENA. The results indicate a required electrolyzer capacity of approximately 160–255 MW, depending on the technical assumptions. The estimated levelized cost of hydgrogen (LCOH) is USD 4.47/kg H ₂ in the baseline scenario, ranging from USD 2.67/kg H ₂ to USD 7.47/kg H ₂ across the three scenarios. Electricity represents roughly half of the total production cost and emerges as the dominant cost driver, followed by electrolyzer CAPEX and the cost of capital. The analysis also shows that, in the absence of explicitly modeled economies of scale, the unit LCOH remains unchanged as plant capacity increases. Overall, the results are consistent with international benchmarks and provide a transparent basis for evaluating electricity procurement and financing strategies for green hydrogen production at Jorf Lasfar.