Government–Industry–University Collaboration and Perceived Zero-Carbon Community Performance: The Mediating Role of Alliance Mechanisms from a Triple Helix Perspective

The development of zero-carbon communities has become an important pathway for advancing urban carbon neutrality. However, the transition toward zero-carbon development is no longer a process driven solely by technological innovation; rather, it has evolved into a complex governance process involving the collaborative participation of multiple stakeholders. Grounded in Triple Helix theory, this study develops an integrated analytical framework to examine the associations between government–industry–university (GIU) collaboration and perceived zero-carbon community performance with particular attention to the mediating roles of strategic alliance, organizational alliance, and knowledge alliance. Based on survey data from 350 stakeholders in China, covariance-based structural equation modeling (CB-SEM) was employed to systematically examine the direct and indirect statistical associations among GIU collaboration, alliance mechanisms, and perceived zero-carbon community performance (PZCP). The results indicate that government support and industry participation are not significantly associated with perceived zero-carbon community performance through direct paths but show significant indirect associations through strategic alliance, suggesting an indirect-only mediation pattern. In contrast, university engagement shows a significant positive direct association with perceived zero-carbon community performance and also shows a significant indirect association through strategic alliance, indicating a complementary mediation pattern. Among the three alliance mechanisms examined, only strategic alliance exhibits a significant indirect association, suggesting that shared strategic objectives, strategic alignment, and long-term collaborative relationships are particularly important in linking GIU collaboration with PZCP. These findings highlight the differentiated roles of government, industry, and university actors and the importance of strategic alignment as a key collaborative mechanism for zero-carbon community development.