Golden Jackal ( Canis aureus ) Population Dynamics and Habitat Preferences Across Five Decades

ABSTRACT

In some human‐altered landscapes, mesopredators such as the golden jackal ( Canis aureus ) can increase in abundance and expand their distribution where apex predators are absent or declining, although this pattern is species—and context‐dependent rather than universal. In the Middle East, historical predator‐control campaigns and ongoing anthropogenic pressures may have facilitated similar processes. However, comprehensive, long‐term studies on how these factors impact jackal populations and their habitat preferences are scarce. This is a significant gap, given that understanding spatiotemporal population trends is crucial for predicting future dynamics and guiding wildlife management in increasingly fragmented ecosystems. Our study analyzes golden jackal population dynamics in Israel over a 51‐year period, using a dual analytical framework that combines nonparametric and model‐based approaches. We first model long‐term changes in abundance, and we also assess habitat preferences using ensemble Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Our findings bring to light a statistically significant long‐term increase in jackal abundance, with central and northern Israel experiencing the most significant increases. The SDMs have identified farmland, grassland, shrub cover, and proximity to water as key predictors of jackal presence, while urbanized and desert regions were found to be less suitable. These findings support the view that the golden jackal is ecologically flexible and able to persist in human‐modified landscapes, particularly agricultural mosaics and peri‐urban areas. These patterns argue for standardized long‐term monitoring to reduce conflict while accommodating conservation in human‐dominated landscapes.