GLP-1 Receptor Agonists or Dual GLP-1/GIP Receptor Agonists vs. SGLT2 Inhibitors in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and HFpEF: A Propensity-Matched Real-World Analysis

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) usually coexist and are related to increased morbidity and mortality. Cardiovascular benefits have been demonstrated by drugs such as sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and GLP-1 receptor agonists including the dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist tirzepatide (collectively, incretin-based therapies); however, their relative effectiveness in patients with concomitant AF and HFpEF remains undefined. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, propensity score-matched cohort study utilizing the TriNetX Global Collaborative Network. Adults with AF or atrial flutter with a diagnosis of HFpEF who initiated incretin-based therapies (GLP-1 receptor agonists or dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonists) or SGLT2i were included; index medication was required to be initiated within 30 days of a qualifying AF/HFpEF diagnosis. 1:1 matching was performed based on baseline medications, demographics, and comorbidities. Co-primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, inpatient visits, and emergency department (ED) visits at 1 year. Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, acute kidney injury, transient ischemic attack, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; all-cause mortality/MI/stroke composite), and AF-related procedures. Agent-specific subgroup analyses were performed for semaglutide and tirzepatide separately. Sensitivity analyses were conducted at 6 months and 2 years. Results: 7624 patients were included in each cohort after matching (mean age: 70.8 years; 52% women). At 1 year, incretin-based therapy was associated with lower all-cause mortality (5.3% vs. 7.3%, HR 0.721, 95% CI 0.634–0.820; p < 0.001), fewer inpatient visits (30.0% vs. 37.4%, HR 0.743, 95% CI 0.702–0.787; p < 0.001), and no statistically significant difference in ED visits (27.0% vs. 28.0%; HR 0.946, 95% CI 0.888–1.007; p = 0.081) compared with SGLT2i. Incretin-based therapy was also associated with lower risk of MACE (HR 0.709), acute kidney injury (HR 0.751), myocardial infarction (HR 0.583), catheter ablation (HR 0.685), and electrical cardioversion (HR 0.472). No significant differences were observed in ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. These findings were broadly consistent at 6-month and 2-year follow-up, and directionally consistent in agent-specific subgroup analyses of semaglutide and tirzepatide. Conclusions: In this large propensity-matched cohort of patients with AF and HFpEF, initiation of incretin-based therapy (GLP-1 receptor agonists or dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonists) was associated with lower all-cause mortality, fewer inpatient visits, and reduced cardiovascular events compared with SGLT2i. These findings, while subject to observational limitations, suggest potential benefits of incretin-based therapy in this high-risk population and support the need for prospective comparative trials.