Global Uncertainty and Economic Resilience: A Quantitative Nonlinear Analysis of Thai Firms

Periods of global uncertainty have a significantly negative impact on the economic resilience of firms worldwide. Thai firms during the COVID-19 pandemic provide an important case for study. This research examines the economic resilience of Thai firms under global uncertainty, particularly during the COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 periods (from 2020 onward). The study uses survey data from 141 firms across manufacturing, agriculture, trade, and service sectors in Thailand. AI-based unsupervised clustering using the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) algorithm and a nonlinear econometric approach, the Panel Dynamic Kink Model, are applied. The results show that firms’ financial profits generally declined during periods of high global uncertainty. However, some firms—especially those in Cluster 1 (Tier 1)—did not experience significant declines, as they were able to adapt creatively and turn challenges into opportunities, particularly in the processed natural rubber supply chain. The findings highlight the importance of cluster-specific policies in strengthening the economic resilience of Thai firms and those in similar Asian economies.