Global Supply Chain Restructuring and ASEAN–China Trade Frictions: Evidence from US Nearshoring and Friendshoring

Abstract

As economic and trade cooperation between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has continued to deepen, trade frictions initiated by ASEAN involving China have also become increasingly prominent in recent years. This study examines these frictions in the context of global supply chain (GSC) restructuring, as reflected in US nearshoring and friendshoring. Evidence indicates that GSC restructuring has largely driven the surge in ASEAN–China trade frictions. Mechanism analysis shows that China's export expansion toward ASEAN, ASEAN's growing negotiating leverage, and the correlation of ASEAN and US trade policies toward China have intensified them. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect is more pronounced in non‐technology‐intensive product supply chains and is associated with ASEAN's greater reliance on traditional rather than nontraditional trade measures. These findings clarify evolving trade dynamics and can inform efforts to balance strategic competition with positive China–ASEAN economic cooperation.