Global return-on-investment of COVID-19 vaccines in the first year of the vaccination programme: A model-based economic evaluation

Methods and findings

Public health outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination, including life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from averted deaths, infections, and hospitalizations, were estimated. Health benefits were valued using two approaches: i) cost-benefit analysis and ii) cost-effectiveness analysis. These benefits were compared to the costs of vaccine development, manufacturing, and delivery to estimate the ROI under both approaches. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of parameter uncertainty on ROI estimates. Vaccine development and delivery cost $79.4 billion, but the health and economic benefits of vaccination were valued between $6.43 and $64.3 trillion. High-income countries saw the greatest health benefits per-person vaccinated, and low-income countries gained the greatest nonhealth benefits per-person vaccinated, when expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product per capita. This estimated ROIs of $59.7–$809 per dollar invested in the base case analysis. ROIs ranged between $60.3–$753 across probabilistic sensitivity analyses for both approaches. Limitations include reliance on previous analyses of COVID-19 vaccination impact and a time horizon limited to the first year of COVID-19 vaccination.