Global Integration, Commodity-Price Exposure, and Volatility Spillovers in Ghanaian Equity Market

This paper examines global equity market integration, commodity-price exposure, and volatility spillovers in Ghana’s frontier equity market. Using daily data from January 2011 to December 2025, we estimate a multi-factor asset pricing model nested within a GARCH framework for the Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSECI) and the Financial Sector Index (GSEFSI). The model jointly estimates first-moment return exposures and second-moment volatility spillovers from a global equity market and three key global commodity markets: gold, crude oil, and cocoa, while controlling for asymmetric volatility, return serial dependence, and domestic macro-financial shifts associated with banking sector recapitalization and the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP). The Ghanaian equity market is exposed to the global equity market, indicating measurable but economically modest global integration, with stronger exposure in the financial sector. Commodity-price exposures are selective, with gold and crude oil exposures concentrated in the financial sector, whereas the cocoa factor is negatively associated with returns on both indices. The variance results show persistent volatility, inverse asymmetric volatility responses, and differentiated volatility spillovers from global equity and commodity markets. The DDEP period is associated with significant equity market repricing, particularly in the financial sector. These findings indicate that Ghana’s equity market dynamics are shaped jointly by global equity and commodity market information, frontier market frictions, and sovereign–bank conditions.