Global Dynamics of a Non-Markovian Epidemic Model on Complex Networks

Abstract.

In the early stages of a newly emerged or reemerged disease, there is a rapid increase in new infections, which can potentially lead to a healthcare crisis due to constraints of available medical resources. It is important to note that the recovery period of these emerging diseases typically follows a Gamma distribution rather than being narrowly centered around the mean. In this study, we propose a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) network model that incorporates a general recovery rate and a saturation treatment function. We establish the well-posedness and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium in the model by employing semigroup theory and the standard comparison principle, respectively. From an epidemiological perspective, when the delayed treatment effect exceeds a significant threshold, a phenomenon known as backward bifurcation emerges near the disease-free equilibrium. This assertion is supported by an updated version of the Lyapunov–Schmidt approach. Additionally, we conduct numerical simulations to investigate how network topology and non-Markovian processes affect the patterns of disease transmission.