Global Competitiveness and Production Projection of Türkiye’s Cherry Sector

Türkiye is the world’s largest cherry producer by volume, yet the value of its cherry exports has stagnated since the mid-2000s. This study tests whether growth in output translates into stronger export competitiveness. The Balassa RCA, Vollrath RXA and Laursen RSCA indices were computed annually for Türkiye and four reference exporters (Chile, the United States, Spain, and China including Hong Kong SAR) from FAO trade data for 1990–2023. Structural break tests, HAC-robust trend regressions, Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests, and a Box–Jenkins ARIMA(1,1,2) projection of domestic production to 2033 with rolling-origin validation were applied. Türkiye retained a revealed comparative advantage in every year (RSCA > 0), but a supremum-Wald test identified a break in 2006 (95% CI 2002–2009). Competitiveness rose over 1990–2004 (RSCA slope +0.026 yr−1, p < 0.001) and declined over 2004–2023 (−0.023 yr−1, p < 0.001), with RCA falling from 20.1 to 2.9. Production growth was positively associated with contemporaneous RSCA changes (β = 0.33, p = 0.015), yet the post-2004 period carried an independent decline of 0.051 index points per year (p = 0.002). Meanwhile, Chile consolidated dominance and China approached parity. Production is projected to reach 0.88–0.94 million t by 2033. The divergence between expanding output and weakening competitiveness is reported as an association, consistent with rising domestic absorption and limited post-harvest logistics and market diversification capacity.