DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.157481.3 ISSN: 2046-1402

Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Asthma: a value of statistical life approach

Jefferson Antonio Buendia, Andres F. Zuluaga, Carlos Enrique Martínez-Rodríguez
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Introduction Asthma imposes a substantial economic burden on health systems. By understanding the economic burden and its projections, public health officials and governments can design more effective asthma management and prevention strategies. This study aimed to estimate the global economic burden of asthma. Methods We projected future year DALYs lost to asthma based on age- and country-specific YLL and YLD rates and their compound annual rates of change (CARCs) derived from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study for 1990–2021. For each country and age group, CARCs were applied to 2021 observed rates to project YLL and YLD rates for 2030, 2040, and 2050; projected rates were multiplied by UN World Population Prospects estimates to obtain absolute DALY counts. We applied the concept of value of a statistical life year (VSLY), projected using country-specific GNI growth rates, to estimate the value of a year of life lost to asthma. Future burden estimates were discounted at 3%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) with 1,000 Monte Carlo iterations varied DALY CARCs (×0.50–×1.50), GNI growth rates (×0.50–×1.50), and VSL_USA ($6.1M–$19.7M), all from uniform distributions; 95% uncertainty intervals are the 2.5th–97.5th percentile of the PSA distribution. Results The global economic burden of asthma is projected to increase from $1,526,093 million in 2023 to $3,348,729 million in 2050, a 119.4% increase (CAGR +2.95%/year). Low- and middle-income countries show accelerating burden growth (CAGR +2.84–+3.55%/year) while high-income countries show declining burden in present-value terms (CAGR −1.39%/year). All income-group comparisons are statistically significant (Kruskal-Wallis H=3,383.5, p<0.001). Conclusion Our study reveals that the global economic burden of asthma is projected to increase by 119% through 2050, with substantially higher growth rates in LMICs than in HICs. These findings underscore the urgency of investing in asthma management in regions with the fastest-growing economic burden.

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