GIS-based wildfire risk assessment: case study of Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

Wildfires are a major natural hazard with serious impacts on ecosystems, human safety, and economic activities in the City of Banja Luka (Bosnia and Herzegovina). This study uses multi-criteria GIS analysis to map wildfire risk across 1,239 km ² , integrating eight variables: land cover, elevation, slope, aspect, temperature, precipitation, and distance from roads and settlements. Weighting coefficients were derived using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and validated through consultation with local fire protection experts. The resulting risk map shows that moderate-risk (61.61 %) and high-risk zones (32.79 %) dominate, with the most extensive high-risk areas in the western, central, and northern parts of the city. Analysis of 182 MODIS-detected fires (2017–2021) indicates that anthropogenic factors, especially proximity to roads and settlements, are key drivers of ignition, with 60 % of fires on agricultural land and most within 400 m of roads. A network of 21 fire watchtowers was designed based on risk zoning and viewshed analysis, providing monitoring coverage of 957.67 km ² . A composite priority scoring system further identified 9 priority tower locations that maximize monitoring effectiveness while minimizing infrastructure investment, offering practical guidance for local wildfire prevention and preparedness.