Ghost in the Prairie: Using Community Science and MaxEnt to Model the Habitat of a Rare Mesopredator

ABSTRACT

Swift foxes ( Vulpes velox ) have experienced drastic range declines across the Southern Great Plains due to historic poisoning campaigns, land‐use change, and intraguild predation. However, recovery and conservation efforts throughout much of their range have helped mitigate or slow the effects of these threats. In Texas, however, swift fox population distributions have been reduced from 45 counties to just two. Our objectives were to identify the variables that impact potential habitat of swift fox in the Southern Great Plains and use those predictions to map potential distribution of swift fox in Texas. We used maximum entropy models (MaxEnt), community science data from iNaturalist, observer‐oriented background points, and remotely sensed data to predict potential distribution throughout the historic range of swift foxes in Texas. Highly developed cover and woody cover best predicted swift fox habitat suitability in the Southern Great Plains, both having a negative relationship with suitability. Our distribution model predicted two primary areas of potential habitat for swift foxes in Texas: one in the north‐central region of the Texas Panhandle and the other in the south‐central region of the panhandle. However, these areas are patchy with distinct clusters of greater suitability and separated by nearly 400 km, with potential barriers such as major highways and rivers impacting connectivity in the panhandle region of Texas. The model also indicates key environmental variables that are likely to contribute to suitable swift fox habitat, which can guide land management. These results can help land managers and decision‐makers identify areas of likely swift fox habitat in Texas for potential reintroductions and conservation efforts.