Germany: Political developments and data in 2025: The Grand Coalition returns

Abstract

In 2025, the federal election resulted in historic losses for the outgoing ‘traffic-light coalition’ and saw the return of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) to government. The election continued the trend towards even higher party system fragmentation. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) recorded its worst ever result (16.4%), while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) did not surpass the five-percent-threshold. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the second largest party (20.8%), and the Left regained relevance (8.8%). A grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD emerged as the only viable option but proved fragile. Following two years of recession, economic growth remained close to zero, and unemployment exceeded three million people. Migration and economic concerns dominated public debate, while the AfD continued to gain in the polls. The Hamburg state election confirmed the city’s status as an SPD stronghold, while the CDU, but also the Left and AfD gained considerably.