Geospatial Assessment of Urban Heat Island and Climate Dynamics in Ile Ife, Southwest Nigeria

Rapid urban growth can alter surface energy balance and intensify surface urban heat islands (SUHIs), yet secondary cities in sub-Saharan Africa remain comparatively understudied. This study assessed spatiotemporal surface thermal dynamics and local climate variability in Ile-Ife, Nigeria, using Landsat scenes acquired on 15 January 1986, 3 January 2002 and 25 December 2024, MODIS MOD11A2 land surface temperature (LST) data for 2000–2024 and CHIRPS rainfall data for 1986– 2024. Land use/land cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), LST and long-term temperature trends were analysed. Built-up land increased from 18.20 km² in 1986 to 106.27 km² in 2024, while vegetation declined from 359.52 km² to 251.92 km². Built-up surfaces were consistently warmer than vegetation, with built-up-minusvegetation surface thermal contrasts of 7.98 °C, 4.21 °C, and 7.51 °C in 1986, 2002 and 2024, respectively. NDVI was negatively associated with LST (r = −0.18, −0.85 and −0.90), whereas NDBI was positively associated with LST (r = 0.62, 0.88, and 0.90). The 2000–2024 MODIS series showed a significant warming trend (Mann–Kendall Z = 3.67, p = 0.00025, Sen’s slope = 0.0759 °C/year). Rainfall varied substantially but was analysed as climatic context rather than as an independently estimated causal driver. The combined evidence indicates persistent surface warming associated with rapid built-up expansion and vegetation loss, supporting the need for heat-sensitive land-use planning, vegetation protection, and targeted green infrastructure in Ile-Ife.