Geopolitical Risk, Government Size and Environmental Sustainability Nexus for SDG 7 and SDG 13 Aligned Ecological Transition in

ABSTRACT

Growing geopolitical uncertainty and ecological degradation have become major barriers to environmental sustainability and sustainable development, particularly, in emerging economies facing rising energy insecurity and institutional challenges. Geopolitical tensions may undermine sustainability transitions by discouraging green investment, disrupting renewable energy systems and increasing reliance on carbon‐intensive energy sources. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on environmental sustainability and investigates whether government size moderates the environmental consequences of geopolitical instability in BRICS‐T economies over the period 1996–2023. Ecological footprint is employed as a comprehensive measure of environmental sustainability, while the Method of Moments Quantile Regression approach is used to capture heterogeneous effects across different ecological pressure regimes. The findings reveal that geopolitical risk increases ecological footprint, thereby weakening environmental sustainability. In contrast, government size reduces ecological pressure, indicating that stronger public sector involvement contributes positively to sustainability outcomes. The interaction analysis further demonstrates that government size mitigates the adverse environmental effects associated with geopolitical instability across the conditional distribution of ecological footprint. In addition, renewable energy consumption improves environmental sustainability, while economic growth and trade openness generally contribute to reducing ecological degradation. The study contributes to the sustainable development literature by demonstrating that government size plays a critical role in mitigating the adverse environmental consequences of geopolitical uncertainty through sustainability‐oriented public expenditure. The findings highlight the importance of renewable energy transition, environmental governance and resilient public institutions for supporting sustainable development and achieving SDG 7, SDG 13 and SDG 16 in emerging economies facing rising geopolitical instability.