Geomechanical Modeling of Cement-Sheath Integrity Under Cyclic Hydraulic-Fracturing Loads: A Systematic Review, Evidence Synthesis, and Model-Selection Framework

Cement-sheath integrity is a critical component of long-term wellbore isolation during multistage hydraulic fracturing (MSHF), where repeated pressure and temperature changes, casing deformation, formation heterogeneity, and interfacial discontinuities generate history-dependent stress paths that can lead to plastic-strain accumulation, cracking, debonding, microannulus formation, and loss of zonal isolation. This systematic review evaluates the modeling approaches used to represent these mechanisms and develops a mechanism-based model-selection framework. Searches conducted in Scopus and the Web of Science Core Collection on 17 March 2026 identified 556 records (378 and 178, respectively). After a removal of 180 duplicates, title/abstract screening, retrieval, and full-text eligibility assessment, 95 publications were included in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. The 95 included publications were classified into seven methodological categories: general and coupled mechanics (n = 32), constitutive and damage modeling (n = 25), interface and fracture mechanics (n = 13), experimental calibration and validation (n = 13), numerical and structural modeling (n = 8), monitoring and data-informed approaches (n = 2), and analytical and semi-analytical methods (n = 2). The synthesis indicates that model suitability depends on matching the structural representation, constitutive formulation, interface treatment, and loading history to the governing integrity mechanism and available calibration and validation evidence. Three distinct but interacting assessment outcomes are identified: stabilization of plastic deformation, resistance to progressive cement and interface damage, and preservation of hydraulic isolation. A calculated shakedown condition does not, by itself, demonstrate fatigue resistance or maintained sealing. Five cross-cutting research gaps concern standardized cyclic cement characterization, reconciliation of shakedown and progressive degradation, calibration of fracture and interface models, physics-informed prediction, and monitoring-assisted model updating. A mechanism-based, minimum-sufficient-complexity framework is proposed to guide the selection of geomechanical models according to the anticipated integrity mechanism, field conditions, and available calibration and validation evidence. The framework provides conditional guidance for heterogeneous and stress-anisotropic oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan, without claiming field-specific validation or universally applicable design thresholds. The review includes direct hydraulic-fracturing evidence, mechanically transferable cyclic wellbore studies, and supporting methodological research. Owing to substantial heterogeneity in loading protocols, model assumptions, integrity outcomes, and validation approaches, the findings were synthesized qualitatively without statistical meta-analysis. A major limitation is that 239 of the 356 reports sought for full-text retrieval (67.1%) were not retrieved during the original study-selection process, introducing a substantial potential source of availability-related selection bias. The absence of documented independent duplicate screening and data extraction, together with the lack of a comprehensive study-level engineering-validity appraisal, further limits the certainty and generalizability of the qualitative synthesis. Accordingly, the proposed framework should be interpreted as an evidence-informed model-selection guide rather than an independently validated predictive tool.