Geoecological monitoring of regional changes in landscape and climatic conditions of pyrogen hazard occurrence in the south of Tyumen region

The article presents the main results of geoecological monitoring of landscape and climatic conditions for the occurrence of pyrogenic hazard in the south of the Tyumen region. Using data from meteorological stations in Tyumen and Ishim, an analysis of the long-term course of the average annual air temperature, total precipitation, relative air humidity, and snow depth for 1988-2023 was conducted. Trends of increasing average annual air temperature and decreasing total annual precipitation, relative air humidity, and average snow depth were identified. Using data from the Tyumen Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, water levels in the Ishim, Tavda, and Tura rivers were analyzed for 2008-2023. An analysis of lake area was performed for 1975, 2002, and 2022. It was established that in the south of Western Siberia, water levels in rivers and lake area are among the key factors of pyrogenic hazard, determining the likelihood and scale of wildfires. The lowest river water levels during the fire season were observed between 2008 and 2012. During this same period, the southern Tyumen Oblast experienced the highest number of fires and a relative increase in the area burned. Using geoinformation mapping, a comparative geospatial analysis of fire areas and lake water surfaces was conducted for 2022 across the administrative districts of the southern Tyumen Oblast. Maps of the depth and density of relief dissection were compiled for the Tyumen, Ishim, and Nizhnetavdinsky districts of the Tyumen Oblast. The orographic factor in forest fire occurrence is determined by terrain elevation, slope, aspect, and elevation changes. Research has shown that the highest number of fires occurs in flat areas, where the height does not exceed 80 meters. The results of geoecological monitoring of changes in landscape and climatic conditions for the occurrence of fire hazards in the southern Tyumen region can be used in developing a predictive model for wildfires to ensure the environmental safety of the region.