Fuzzy Modeling as a Tool Supporting the Energy Policy of Selected Municipalities (Poland)

Energy planning should focus on actions to save energy and reduce consumption while also implementing renewable energy sources to support sustainable urban development. In addition to global regulations, individual countries also have documents that facilitate energy management at the local level. This is a particularly valuable source of information about resources that influence energy efficiency at the national level. This article analyzes the Low-Emission Economy Plans (LEEPs) developed for selected cities in Poland. Based on selected provisions, fuzzy modeling solutions are proposed to support energy decisions in municipalities. The research thesis assumes that the appropriate selection of criteria for emission reduction, as well as their objectification and hierarchization, when supported by fuzzy logic modeling and multi-criteria analysis, enables local governments to identify key variables and structures and compare decision scenarios relevant to local energy policies. To verify this thesis, an analysis of the LEEP provisions of four city municipalities located in the Kuyavian–Pomeranian Voivodeship was conducted. Based on these criteria, a set was identified, and diagrams were developed to identify variables and concepts that occupy key positions in the modeled pathways leading to emission reductions. Fuzzy logic modeling and multi-criteria analysis were used as decision-support tools in the research process. A comparison of the applied approaches enables the identification and prioritization of variables of greatest importance within the adopted set of criteria. The obtained results allow us to determine how the adopted energy strategies are linked to the implementation of local policy objectives and which relationships play a key role in the modeled decision-making structure. The analysis indicates that the decision-making variants differ in their impact on the paths leading to reduced final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Variant W1, which is based on investments in renewable energy sources, is strongly associated with the path leading to reduced greenhouse gas emissions, while increased public awareness and acceptance also play a significant role in the model’s structure. The strongest relationships were identified between increased energy efficiency and building energy standards, between building energy standards and reduced final energy consumption, and between reduced final energy consumption and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The reasoning map thus highlighted the particular importance of the sequence of relationships linking energy efficiency, building energy standards, and reduced final energy consumption. The proposed approach can also provide a basis for further comparisons with solutions used in other countries, thus expanding the possibilities of analyzing low-emission policies at the local and national levels.