FuTURe Study (FUnctional Tricuspid Update Study of REcurrence)—Personalized Risk Stratification for Functional Tricuspid Regurgitation Recurrence After Mitral–Tricuspid Surgery

Objectives: Functional tricuspid regurgitation (TR) recurrence after concomitant mitral–tricuspid surgery remains associated with adverse long-term outcomes, while reintervention on the isolated tricuspid valve carries substantial operative risk. Despite increasing awareness of the prognostic importance of functional TR, concomitant tricuspid valve repair remains inconsistently adopted in contemporary practice, particularly in technically demanding procedures. We sought to identify predictors of recurrent TR and develop an individualized prediction model to support patient-tailored surgical planning. Methods: This single-center ambispective study included 178 consecutive patients undergoing concomitant mitral–tricuspid surgery between January 2012 and June 2019. Baseline clinical, echocardiographic and operative variables were retrospectively collected, whereas long-term clinical and echocardiographic follow-up was prospectively completed after Ethics Committee approval. Clinical, echocardiographic and operative variables were first evaluated by univariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. Based on their univariable association with recurrent TR, biological plausibility and clinical relevance, candidate predictors were subsequently entered into a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model while limiting model complexity according to the number of available outcome events. Internal validation was performed by bootstrap resampling, and regression coefficients were transformed into an exploratory individualized perioperative nomogram estimating 5-year tricuspid regurgitation recurrence-free survival. Results: Univariable analysis identified female sex, dyslipidemia, left ventricular ejection fraction < 45%, severe pre-operative TR, indexed tricuspid annular diameter and suture-based annuloplasty as predictors of recurrent TR. Multivariable analysis identified surgical repair strategy as the only independent predictor associated with recurrent TR, with suture-based annuloplasty showing a significantly higher recurrence risk than prosthetic ring annuloplasty. These variables were integrated into an exploratory individualized prediction model estimating 5-year recurrence-free survival: the FuTURe nomogram. Conclusions: Our findings confirm the association between prosthetic ring annuloplasty and a lower risk of recurrent TR, consistent with current evidence supporting ring implantation as the preferred repair strategy. Beyond identifying predictors of recurrence, the FuTURe study proposes an exploratory perioperative individualized prediction model intended to complement current guideline recommendations. Consistent with its acronym, the FuTURe study shifts the focus from immediate procedural success to the patient’s future clinical trajectory, highlighting the value of individualized recurrence-risk assessment from a lifetime management perspective.