Full‐stage risk management of forecast deviation for large‐scale renewable energy participating in the spot market

Abstract

Against the backdrop of renewable energy achieving full market integration, renewable energy forecasting deviations have become a critical bottleneck constraining the clearing efficiency of electricity spot markets, hindering the rational allocation of costs, and threatening the secure operation of the power system. A framework comprising a full‐stage governance system covering planning, medium‐ to long‐term trading, spot markets, and settlement is adopted in this paper. The experiences of global markets in addressing forecast deviations of renewable energy through multi‐stage, tiered governance are systematically reviewed in the paper. During the planning stage, a probabilistic physical defence boundary is established to address hidden physical gaps arising from random fluctuations that deterministic planning cannot account for. In the medium‐ to long‐term stage, risks are mitigated through a combination of physical resource aggregation and financial hedging tools, including bilateral contracts, forward contracts, reliability options, and parametric insurance. In the spot market, approaches such as self‐forecast verification, rolling forecast corrections, and a multi‐level substitution mechanism for abnormal data are adopted. During the settlement stage, incentive‐compatible mechanisms are used to improve the accuracy of renewable energy forecasting. Finally, suggestions on full‐stage risk management for large‐scale renewable energy participating in the spot market are proposed in this paper.