Fuel Poverty in Liverpool: The Deprivation-Pollution-Housing Loop

Fuel poverty is shaped by interacting social, environmental and housing conditions, yet these links remain underexplored at city scale. The analysis is framed as an ecological, cross-sectional assessment of spatial associations rather than as a causal proof of a closed feedback mechanism. This study examines the relationship between fuel poverty, deprivation, particulate air pollution and housing typology across 54 wards in Liverpool, UK. Ward-level fuel poverty and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data were integrated with 2023–2024 annual mean particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) from 58 low-cost air-quality sensors and classified housing types. Regression models were used to compare individual, additive and interaction effects. Fuel poverty ranged from 12.4% to 25.29%, while PM2.5 and PM10 frequently exceeded World Health Organization guideline values. IMD was the strongest individual predictor of fuel poverty (R2 = 0.281, p<0.001). The preferred additive model including IMD, PM2.5, PM10 and housing type explained 43.5% of the variance, with Victorian Terraces emerging as a significant risk factor. Although interaction models suggested pollution-deprivation coupling, model selection and uncertainty diagnostics favoured the simpler additive specification. The findings support targeted retrofit, fuel-poverty and emissions-control policies in deprived urban neighbourhoods where inefficient housing and environmental stressors compound energy insecurity and where local action can contribute to more equitable urban sustainability.