Fuel Diversification as a Risk Management Strategy: Household Cooking Energy Choices Under Uncertainty in Urban Malawi

Clean cooking transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa remain limited despite increasing access to modern energy, highlighting the need to extend traditional demand-side approaches by incorporating risk and uncertainty into household decision-making. This study examines household energy choices under uncertainty in urban and peri-urban Malawi and reconceptualizes fuel diversification, or energy stacking, as a rational risk management strategy. Using cross-sectional data from 3015 households collected in 2026, the study uses binary logistic regression models to estimate the determinants of fuel diversification. The results show that exposure to uncertainty significantly increases the likelihood of energy stacking. Electricity unreliability (p < 0.01), charcoal price variability (p < 0.05), income volatility, and past fuel shortages are all positively associated with diversification behavior. In contrast, stable and higher incomes reduce reliance on multiple fuels. Household size significantly increases the number of fuels used (p < 0.01), reflecting higher energy demand and risk exposure. The findings demonstrate that energy stacking is a deliberate risk mitigation strategy consistent with risk diversification theory and highlight that improving reliability, stabilizing prices, and reducing market uncertainty are critical for accelerating clean cooking transitions.