From the Margins: Potential Coalitions in Centralized, High‐Capacity States

ABSTRACT

The early stages of coalition formation remain an understudied area, particularly in centralized, high‐capacity political systems. Examining actor dynamics at this formative stage can reveal how coalitions form and how limited pluralism constrains their development. This study examines how potential coalition members emerge, and what shapes their prospects for consolidation in this institutional context. We study sustainability efforts in Singapore‐ a centralized polity with a history of state‐led environmental governance and a recent rise of sustainability nonprofits. Drawing on interviews with 39 nonprofits, we examine evidence of early stages of coalition formation outside of the state‐led coalition within Singapore's sustainability subsystem. Our findings show that both subsystem structure and actor attributes constrain potential coalitions from forming, owing to limited resource support and venues to formally participate in the coalition and coordinate with peers and the dominant state‐led coalition. Uncertainty in positions and learning orientation of other actors foster caution and complacency, entrenching weak horizontal ties. Additionally, crises can open brief windows for coordination, but these can close as routines and hierarchies reassert themselves. This study advances our understanding of coalition formation dynamics in centralized, high‐capacity, and limited pluralism contexts where contestation often remains limited and subtle.