From terrorist event to political effect: An analytical model of the political consequences of terrorism

The paper analyzes the relationship between a terrorist event and its political effect. It starts from the assumption that the immediate characteristics of a terrorist attack, such as the number of victims, target selection, mode of execution, and symbolic value of the attacked object, do not provide a sufficient explanation of its political consequences. The main aim of the paper is to formulate an analytical model that explains the political effect of a terrorist event as an outcome of the interaction between institutional, political, and social determinants. In this model, the terrorist event is treated as the initial analytical unit, while the political effect is treated as the dependent outcome to be explained. The model is empirically examined through a comparative analysis of three cases: the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, the Madrid attacks of March 11, 2004, and the Norway attacks of July 22, 2011. The analysis shows that the different political outcomes of these events can be explained more consistently by examining institutional responses, political definitions of the threat, and social interpretations of the attack than by relying solely on the immediate characteristics of the terrorist events themselves.