From research to conservation: Site selection for habitat restoration of a narrowly distributed and critically endangered butterfly

Abstract

An alarming loss of insect diversity is occurring globally, with a substantial portion of European endemic butterflies currently threatened with extinction. Species with narrow distributions are in urgent need of conservation actions. This study focuses on Polyommatus humedasae , a monophagous butterfly endemic to a restricted area in northwestern Italy, where its primary threat is woody encroachment. We developed a replicable and data‐driven workflow to assist in selecting areas for habitat restoration, based on high‐resolution species distribution modeling. Presence data derived from a recent mark‐release‐recapture study were combined with topographic variables and vegetation indices from remote sensing to generate a fine‐scale habitat suitability model. Based on the habitat suitability map, we assessed connectivity to identify critical areas for species movement. We modeled the probability of presence as a function of vegetation cover, identifying the optimal tree cover for the species. Restoration areas were prioritized where patches were unsuitable due to excessively high tree cover and where intervention could enhance connectivity. An area of 0.6 hectares was selected for restoration, considering additional criteria such as impacts on other conservation elements, accessibility to the area, availability of financial resources, and stakeholder involvement. This approach demonstrates the practical applicability of species distribution models in guiding ecological restoration and enabled the development of a management plan aimed at maintaining landscape heterogeneity through a dynamic, small‐scale strategy focused on key areas for species movement.