From Hazard to Resource: A Screening‐Level Assessment of Glacial Lake Hydropower Potential and Development Suitability in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalaya

Abstract

Climate warming accelerates glacier retreat and glacial lake expansion, creating hydropower opportunities while increasing flood hazards. Despite extensive research on glacial lake hazards, assessments of hydropower potential and development suitability remain limited. Here, we quantify the theoretical hydropower potential of 37 glacial lakes in the Poiqu river basin, central Himalaya, by integrating multi‐scenario climate projections with annual lake water budget reconstruction to estimate hydropower‐relevant inflow across four operational stages during 2025–2100 and by deriving available hydraulic heads through hierarchical river network and topographic gradient analyses. We develop a multi‐criteria framework to evaluate environmental, technical, and economic suitability and prioritize lakes. Across four climate scenarios, basin‐wide mean annual generation is projected at about 212.8 GWhr yr ⁻¹ during Stage I (risk mitigation, 2025–2030), followed by about 200.6, 197.0, and 194.3 GWhr yr ⁻¹ during Stages II–IV (adaptive generation, 2031–2100), respectively. Paqupuco is identified as the top‐priority site, with annual generation potential of about 14.3 GWhr yr ⁻¹ and a suitability score of 80.6. At the regional screening scale, modeled operations could reduce the maximum storage of high‐risk lakes, such as Gangxico and Galongco, to about 71% of their initial capacities. Sensitivity analyses indicate that basin‐wide estimates and leading candidates are broadly stable under the tested water budget and weighting assumptions. By linking hydropower resource assessment with climate‐adaptive hazard governance, this study provides a regional screening framework for jointly evaluating clean energy opportunities and glacial lake outburst flood mitigation in glacierized mountain regions.