From Forecast to Action: Public Employees’ Emergency Management Decision‐Making Under Probabilistic Weather Information

ABSTRACT

Disaster emergency management practice has long relied on deterministic warnings, yet how public employees respond to probabilistic forecasts for high‐impact weather remains understudied. This study assesses how communicating low‐probability high‐impact (LPHI) weather information compared to high‐probability low‐impact (HPLI) warnings influence public employees’ response measures. Findings from two internally controlled experiments with the general public ( n = 324) and public employees ( n = 122) reveal that LPHI weather information (e.g., 30% or 10%–30% probability of a red‐level event) elicit significantly stronger immediate intentions and greater tolerance to null events than HPLI warnings (e.g., 100% yellow‐level warnings). These effects were robust among public employees but differed for the general public, highlighting the role of institutional context such as hierarchical accountability and asymmetric error costs (unprepared disasters penalized more than overreactions). However, the communication strategy did not significantly affect perceived trustworthiness of meteorological authorities. The research shows that communicating probabilistic, high‐impact weather information from ensemble forecasts can enhance operational vigilance and resilience in emergency management. Practical implications for disaster risk communication in early warnings are discussed for the integration of early warning and emergency response.