From Core-Periphery to Polycentricity: Structure and Resilience of the Belt and Road Renewable Energy Trade Network

Green and energy cooperation is the core issue of the Belt and Road Initiative, which has a profound impact on the reshaping of renewable energy trade networks. In this study, renewable energy trade data from 66 “Belt and Road” partner nations (and regions) from 2001 to 2024 are used to construct a dynamic weighted directed network model that analyzes the structural evolution and robustness of the renewable energy trade network. The evolution of the renewable energy trade network among “Belt and Road” partner nations has various distinguishing features. Nodes such as Russia and China have high centrality, as evidenced by the network’s degree distribution and centrality metrics, which suggest a unique core-periphery structure with obvious hierarchical aspects. The backbone network structure tends to exhibit polycentric diffusion and expansion, with the number of countries in the backbone network structure increasing from 10 to 16; the strength of connections between core layers increases, as evidenced by the absolute value of the b-value in the power-law fit curve rising to 1.59, whereas differences in node centrality narrow, resulting in a significant increase in topological complexity. In addition, the network’s overall resilience to purposeful and stochastic simulated attacks has increased. Furthermore, the node diversity coefficient indicates that the core countries are large, while the non-core countries are highly resilient, providing empirical evidence that renewable energy cooperation is moving toward coordinated development. Finally, the development of the renewable energy trade under the Belt and Road Initiative can be promoted by strengthening international technical cooperation, optimizing risk buffer mechanisms, and advancing the establishment of a multitiered hub trade network.